WASHINGTON — Independent estimates after Friday’s August inflation report put the 2027 Social Security COLA around 3.5% to 3.6%. The official figure is not out yet. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce it on Oct. 14, 2026, the same day the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish September’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Any increase would apply to January 2027 benefit checks.
That is the weekend search answer in one place: next year’s Social Security adjustment is still a forecast, but Friday’s CPI-W reading narrowed the range. About 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries received a 2.8% COLA in 2026, according to CNBC citing the Social Security Administration.
What Friday’s inflation data showed
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, Sept. 11, 2026, that the CPI-W rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending in August and 0.4% from July. The broader Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was up 3.4% over the year. The COLA uses CPI-W, a wage-earner subset, not the headline CPI-U.
The Senior Citizens League said July’s CPI-W year-over-year change was 3.4% and August’s was 3.5%. Independent write-ups of the same BLS release put the August CPI-W index at 328.481 and the CPI-U at 334.980 (1982–84=100). August is the second of three months in the formula.
When the official Social Security COLA is announced
Federal law bases the COLA on the percentage change in the average CPI-W for July, August, and September compared with the same three months a year earlier. September’s number is scheduled for Oct. 14. Analysts and seniors groups say the Social Security Administration typically publishes the official COLA the same day.
Until that average exists, every 2027 percentage is an estimate. Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst cited by CNBC, put the 2027 Social Security COLA at 3.5% after Friday’s data, up from her 3.4% August estimate. She said later moves would depend on oil prices.
The Senior Citizens League issued what it called its final 2027 prediction the same day: 3.5%, down 0.1 point from its prior 3.6% forecast and 0.7 points above the 2.8% 2026 COLA. AARP, in a Friday forecast also summarized by CNBC, projected 3.6%. CNBC noted that range would be the highest Social Security COLA in three years if it holds. The agency has said the past decade’s COLAs averaged about 3.1%, from 0% in 2016 to 8.7% in 2023.
CNBC’s Friday story collected the BLS figures and the Johnson, TSCL, and AARP forecasts: Social Security COLA 2027 estimates.
What 3.5% to 3.6% would mean for checks
TSCL said a 3.5% COLA would raise its stated average monthly benefit from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98, or $67.90. AARP said a 3.6% COLA would increase the average retired-worker benefit by $75 a month. CNBC, citing AARP, also noted the 2026 2.8% COLA lifted that average retired-worker figure from about $2,015 to $2,071.
Those dollar examples are the groups’ math, not an SSA 2027 table. Individual checks differ. Medicare Part B premiums, announced separately, can change how much of a COLA a beneficiary actually keeps. This article does not invent a 2027 Part B premium.
Household costs still eat raises. Cities arguing over Jacksonville’s affordable housing trust fund and Salt Lake City’s expanding housing-options vote are debating the same price pressure retirees feel in rent and utilities. Tuesday’s Census income release will refresh the 2025 income, poverty, and insurance picture — a different product from the COLA, but part of the same September budget conversation.
A COLA also assumes the agency that pays it stays open. Congress already pushed federal operations, including Social Security offices, past a Sept. 30 cliff with stopgap CR funding through Dec. 11.
Why this matters
Tens of millions of households plan winter budgets off one October percentage. Friday’s CPI-W reading makes a 2027 Social Security COLA near 3.5% to 3.6% the most supported public range, and it would beat the last two official COLAs if it holds. It is still not official. September inflation can move the average. Treat forecasts as planning tools, not deposited amounts, and wait for the Oct. 14 announcement before quoting a final number.
How Never Late News reported this
Never Late News used CNBC’s Sept. 11, 2026, report for the 3.5–3.6% estimate range, Mary Johnson’s 3.5% figure, AARP’s 3.6% forecast and dollar examples, the SSA-cited 75 million / 2.8% 2026 COLA, and decade-range COLA history. We used The Senior Citizens League’s Sept. 11 release for its 3.5% final prediction, July/August CPI-W figures, Oct. 14 announcement date, January 2027 effective date, and $67.90 example. BLS year-over-year CPI-W (+3.5%) and CPI-U (+3.4%) figures come from those accounts and BLS latest-numbers reporting. We did not invent an official 2027 COLA, a September CPI-W, or a 2027 Medicare Part B premium.
Corrections and reader feedback
If you spot an error in this report, email tips@neverlatenews.com. We correct the record promptly and note substantive updates at the bottom of the story when needed.